Good news! India will see normal monsoon this year, says IMD chief

16 April, 2018, 14:44 | Author: Wade Massey
  • After Skymet, IMD also forecasts normal Monsoon 2018 at 97 percent

The IMD predicted 97 per cent chance of near-normal showers.

Monsoon in 2017 recorded below normal rains.

India is likely to receive average monsoon rains in 2018, the meteorological department said, raising the possibility of higher farm and economic growth in Asia's third-biggest economy, where half of the farmland lacks irrigation.

A normal south-west monsoon bodes well for the Indian economy and is likely to boost rural demand and alleviate farm distress.

As the extreme sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans particularly ENSO conditions over the Pacific (El Nino or La Nina) are known to have strong influence on the Indian summer monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the sea surface conditions over the Pacific and Indian oceans. Anything between 90-96 per cent of the LPA is considered "below normal".

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Monsoon is considered as "normal" if the average rainfall is between 96-104 per cent of the LPA.

Hoping that the monsoon will be constant and not sporadic, IMD said that region based forecast will be available only during the second assessment in June and the date of the monsoon's onset into Kerala will be announced in mid May. If the average rainfall is below 90 per cent of LPA, the Monsoon is termed "deficient".

It said that normal rains are likely for the country, particularly East India, while the Southern Peninsula and parts of Northeast India could be at some risk of getting below normal rains.

Successive years of drought in 2014 and 2015 led to a fall in crop production and poor agriculture sector growth rate which fell to a low of -0.8% in 2014-15 and -0.1% in 2015-16.

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