International Monetary Fund raises Israel growth forecast

09 October, 2018, 13:55 | Author: Regina Silva
  • IMF forecasts India's 2018 growth at 7.3 pc, praises GST, bankruptcy code

After weeks of constant drama, the federal government on Monday finally announced that it is going to seek the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) assistance in a bid to tackle the country's financial woes.

Umar is expected to lead a delegation to attend the annual meeting of International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Bali, Indonesia from October 12 to 14, where he will start initial talks for the bailout package.

The IMF outlook already projects global growth will slow to 3.6 percent during 2022 - 2023.

Growth estimates for the euro area and Britain also was revised down.

For emerging market and developing economies, gradually tightening U.S. monetary policy, coupled with trade uncertainties and - for countries such as Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey - distinctive factors, have discouraged capital inflows, weakened currencies, depressed equity markets, and pressured interest rates and spreads, he said. "Notwithstanding the present demand momentum, we have downgraded our 2019 USA growth forecast owing to the recently enacted tariffs on a wide range of imports from China and China's retaliation".

Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe, could be particularly hard hit by a drop in manufacturing orders and trade volumes.

But the United States tax cuts and rising spending that have boosted growth, helping compensate for the impact of the growing trade conflict, could spark a sudden "inflation surprise", and in turn lead to faster-than-expected rise in USA interest rates, according to the fund. It had previously predicted jobless rates of 5.5% and 5.2% respectively.

"Looking ahead, renewed impetus to reform labour and land markets, along with further improvements to the business climate, are also crucial", it said.

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"But there is no denying that the susceptibility to large global shocks has risen".

While the global economy is still on track to match last year's pace, which was the strongest since 2011, the new outlook suggests fatigue is setting in and the overall performance masked mounting weakness in emerging markets from Brazil to Turkey. Less than 1 percent of the nation's more than 200 million people file tax returns and its exports, including textiles, lag the region.

"We have not been formally approached yet", said Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF's top economist, during the fund's annual meeting in Bali.

Some energy-rich emerging market countries have fared better due to higher oil prices, with Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation receiving upgrades to growth forecasts.

"Where we are now is we've gotten some bad news".

"We will be listening very, very attentively when and if they come to us", said Obstfeld.

It found that global GDP output under this scenario would fall by more than 0.8% in 2020 and remain roughly 0.4% lower in the long-term compared to levels without these effects, which "inflict significant costs to the global economy, especially through its impact on confidence and financial conditions".

That includes President Donald Trump's imposition of tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods, as well as on aluminum, steel and other products worldwide.

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