International Monetary Fund projects India growth at 7.3% in 2018

10 October, 2018, 19:45 | Author: Regina Silva
  • If projections are true then India would regain the tag of fastest growing major economies of the world crossing China with more than 0.7 percentage point in 2018 and an impressive 1.2 percentage point growth lead in 2019

"Nonetheless, despite trade tensions and continued monetary policy normalisation in a few advanced economies, global financial markets have remained buoyant and appear complacent about the risk of a sudden, sharp tightening in financial conditions".

The IMF, which with the World Bank is holding its annual meetings in Bali this week, cited escalating tensions between the world's two largest economies over trade tariffs, slower export growth in the euro zone, higher oil prices, and China's regulatory tightening in its property and financial sectors as factors hampering global growth.

They show that a burst of strong growth, fueled partly by U.S. tax cuts and rising demand for imports, was starting to wane. -China trade war, coupled with threatened global US automotive tariffs and retaliation from trading partners.

In Bali on Tuesday, IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld said the rupee was "too rigid and overvalued".

"Notwithstanding the present demand momentum, we have downgraded our 2019 United States growth forecast owing to the recently enacted tariffs on a wide range of imports from China and China's retaliation".

The fund cut its 2019 United States growth forecast from 2.7 per cent to 2.5 per cent, and the China growth forecast from 6.4 per cent to 6.2 per cent.

The IMF said a new data base in its semi-annual Fiscal Monitor report showed considerable net worth in 31 countries that account for 61 per cent of global economic output.

This would mark China's weakest growth since 1990 and the impact could be harsher - a decline of 1 percentage point or more - if a worst-case trade war scenario were to materialise.

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IMF's forecast for Singapore's economic outlook remains steady at 2.9% for 2018, but has been revised downward by 0.2 percentage points to 2.5% for the following year. "Poverty will lead to an increasing crime rate and the tall claims of 10 million jobs and five million house would not materialize", Wizarat warned. "The Pakistan market was down by more than 3 percent due to margin calls and lack of clarity on the International Monetary Fund or other funding", Muhammad Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities, told Arab News.

"But there is no denying that the susceptibility to large global shocks has risen", Obstfeld said.

Compared to the projections made in April, the current one for 2018 is lower by 0.1 per cent and for 2019 by 0.4 per cent. But it predicts that US growth will slow to 2.5 per cent next year as the effect of recent tax cuts wears off and as US President Donald Trump's trade war with China takes a toll.

"We need to join hands to fix the current trade system, not destroy it", she added.

On the global ratings, International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecasts due to the trade tensions between the US and trading partners. This growth exceeds that achieved in any of the years between 2012 and 2016, and it occurs as many economies have reached or are nearing full employment and as earlier deflation fears have dissipated.

Trump has levied or threatened tariffs on goods from economies around the world, notably China, but also on traditional allies such as the European Union.

He contended that China had "already retaliated" against his tariff increases.

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