Energy agency: Global oil supply jumps, sending prices lower

15 November, 2018, 08:10 | Author: Regina Silva
  • Oil prices have lost a fifth of their value over the past month

Consequently, this implies that a production cut may do little to restore prices if Russian and USA production continues to pump at record levels, while demand also falters.

Non-OPEC supply will rise in 2019 by 2.23 million bpd, the Vienna-based organization said, 120,000 bpd more than previously thought and far more than the increase in world demand. Price is now moving through and beyond the 100 EMA and 55.00 looks a good long term place for a pause given the support that is there.

The agency raised its forecast for oil output growth from countries outside the OPEC to 2.4 million bpd this year and 1.9 million bpd next year.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, ending the longest ever losing streak for US crude, on the growing prospect of OPEC and allied producers cutting output at a meeting next month.

Oil prices, which spiked in October in the run-up to the reimposition of USA sanctions on Iran's oil industry on November 5, fell after the USA granted waivers to eight countries importing Iranian crude for a 180-day period.

Since October, the oil price has fallen to below $70 a barrel, its lowest in eight months.

"It's like a run on the bank".

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Moreover, financial firms have been hedging the risk incurred by selling put options to oil producers, generating added downward pressure as prices fall toward option strikes, Goldman Sachs said in a note.

Oil demand is slowing as the world economy decelerates - OPEC nudged down its 2019 growth forecast in the report.

Trump's statement came after top oil exporter Saudi Arabia announced a supply cut in December and other producers considered reductions heading into 2019.

Brent prices rose 0.6 per cent on Wednesday to $65.86 at 1115 GMT (6:13 a.m. EST).

Oil markets are being pressured from two sides: a surge in supply and increasing concerns about an economic slowdown, as seen with the economic contractions in powerhouses Japan and Germany during the third quarter as well as in China's falling auto sales. United States output outstripped the production of Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Monday that Opec agreed there was a need to cut oil supply next year by around one million barrels per day from October levels to prevent oversupply.

U.S. crude oil output from its seven major shale basins is expected to hit a record 7.94 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.

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