Opec deal won't alter fundamental outlook for oil market: IEA

13 July, 2019, 20:39 | Author: Regina Silva
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Crude oil supply in the world exceeded demand by 900,000 bpd in the first half of the year, the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly Oil Market Report, adding that forecasts had pointed to a deficit of half a million barrels daily.

At a meeting two weeks ago in Vienna, OPEC countries and other oil producers such as Russian Federation agreed to prolong by nine months daily output cuts aimed at supporting prices and soaking up excess supplies.

The French-based agency said oil supplies for the first half of 2019 surpassed demand by almost a million barrels a day.

Other Asia, it indicated, is projected to be the largest contributor to incremental oil demand in 2020, followed by China, which is forecast to be lower than in the current year.

The report added that the second half of 2019 expecting to see "seasonally strong demand" based on "the recent draws in U.S. crude oil stocks".

"Clearly, this presents a major challenge to those who have taken on the task of market management", the IEA said in its report.

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According to secondary sources, total OPEC preliminary crude oil production averaged 29.83 mb/d in June, lower by 68 tb/d m-o-m, Trendreports citing OPEC Oil Market Report. In fact, this week's US Department of Energy report provided further strong evidence that demand remains robust which has helped quell the recent trade related fears.

Not every analyst agreed with the agency's assessment.

"We think USA production growth is likely to under-perform expectations, possibly materially so", Kopits writes in an email.

Prices are slightly higher from last month, when Brent was fetching about $62, and from the start of the year, when Brent was about $53. "European demand is sluggish; growth in India vanished in April and May due to a slowdown in [liquefied petroleum gas] deliveries and weakness in the aviation sector; and in the US demand for both gasoline and diesel in the first half of 2019 is lower year-on-year".

'There are indications of deteriorating trade and manufacturing activity.

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