Singapore slashes 2019 GDP growth forecast after sharp Q2 contraction
13 August, 2019, 20:29 | Author: Regina Silva
What Happened: Singapore has reduced its annual gross domestic product growth estimates to between 0 and just 1 percent due to rising trade concerns and a worsening outlook for global electronics, CNA reported August 13. The median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for 3% contraction on-quarter and 0.2% growth compared to a year ago. That comes after a 26.9% drop in electronics exports in the second quarter year-on-year.
The construction sector expanded by 2.9%, compared to the 2.8% growth in the previous quarter, helped by public sector construction works. Last year, the Singapore economy expanded by 3.1%.
Growth in the accommodation & food services sector slowed to 0.9% YoY from 2.0% in the previous quarter as the food services and accommodation segments propped up headline figures.
Enterprise Singapore (ESG) said today that total non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) for the year is projected to contract by 8-9%, after slumping 14.6% in April to June from the same period last year. The food services segment expanded on account of higher sales at fast food outlets, other eating places and restaurants, whilst the accommodation segment grew on the back of a rise in worldwide visitor arrivals.
The information and communications sector grew by 4.1 per cent year-on-year, easing from the 5.2 per cent growth in the previous quarter.
Services producing industries gained 1.1% year-on-year, moderating from the 1.2% growth in the previous quarter.
"This could severely dent global business and global confidence, with adverse implications on global trade and global economic growth".
GDP growth in the United States is expected to moderate in the second half of the year, as the effects of the fiscal stimulus implemented in early-2018 dissipate while slowing global growth and prolonged trade uncertainty weigh on private investment.
"Against this challenging external macroeconomic backdrop, and the deepening downturn in the global electronics cycle, the Singapore economy is likely to continue to face strong headwinds for the rest of the year", the ministry said in a statement Tuesday.
Despite overall bad performance, MTI pointed out that there are several areas of strength in the Singapore economy. The support came mostly from finance and insurance and information and communications segments but the wholesale and retail trade segment moderated the gains. On top of that, the recovery in the construction sector is also expected to be sustained.
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The Brexit crisis and the uncertain global outlook left the nation's economy on a "knife-edge" for the third quarter, he added. The data, which was worse than market expectations for zero growth, sent the pound sliding against the euro and dollar.